Mandingo And Milen Velba

Washington seeks in the past a model for Egypt

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Republican President Ronald Reagan from 1981 to 1989 has approved the reign of "ultra-liberalism" of the Chicago Boys in Chile, then negotiated political transition, with the moderate opposition

U n workbook 15 cm thick stands on the desk of Tom Donilon, the national security adviser for Barack Obama, who has commissioned a study of different precedents to illuminate the Egyptian revolution, according to a senior administration.

After Tunisia and Egypt, the lesson may be used elsewhere in the Arab world. Obama, who is himself " the right side of history , on Tuesday urged its allies in the region to follow the example of Egypt in initiating political reforms without waiting to see wrest from the street.

The overthrow of Indonesian dictator Suharto in 1998 is considered particularly in Washington, because Indonesia is a Muslim country like Egypt and its democratic development could be an example in Cairo.

Barack Obama, who spent part of his childhood in Indonesia, acknowledged during a visit to Jakarta last November, the balance of power between the presidency and parliament and the emergence of civil society in this country.

The parallel is useful " as one keeps in mind that Egypt is not Iran nor Indonesia " tempers the political scientist Thomas Carothers of the Carnegie Endowment for institute International Peace.

A senior administration specifies that the examples most useful to him are those of the political upheavals in the late 1980s in the Philippines, South Korea and Chile, all countries that have maintained their alliance with the United States.

the Philippines, as in Egypt, an alliance between civilian and military end to the corrupt dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos, which was replaced by a democratic system.

In Chile, public pressure forced Pinochet to hold a referendum in 1988 was the beginning of a successful democratic election process in a country that was considered as the worst dictatorship in Latin America.

And in South Korea, protests toppled the military dictatorship that had to resolve to hold elections.

Washington also considers the post-communist transition occurred in Central Europe, including Poland under the influence of the trade union Solidarity, and Czechoslovakia under the leadership of Vaclav Havel.

American experts know that a political transition is often fraught with pitfalls. She has more chance of success it combines the greatest possible number of political tendencies.

In Egypt, this means that the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood to participate in the transition, even if his eventual arrival in power of nightmares is part of Washington.

" The important thing is to prevent a political tendency not to feel excluded from the process. Otherwise we could end up facing a radical opposition "warns a senior American official.

History also shows that it is preferable initially to "limit the scope of changes," added the official, who warns that national unity could break on an evolution too fast for society.

Egypt lacks an ingredient in some successful revolutions: a charismatic leader like Corazon Aquino in the Philippines. But for Mr. Carothers, even if such a person may serve as "glue socio-political," it s absence is not fatal, as shown the example of Chile.